Forum Pakistan

Gloom, Doom and HOPE

Spearhead Analysis 29-09

There are several positive developments that must be noted. President Zardari’s trip to New York has been good and productive---the Palin and Bush hiccups are just hiccups-- the media hype notwithstanding. The excellent response from the Friends of Pakistan Forum has raised hopes and expectations. The Zardari-Bush and Zardari-Manmohan Singh talks have brought needed reassurance as did Karzai’s statement. Reciprocal visits by Zardari and Manmohan Singh should lead to more understanding. The agreement on cross LOC trade is progress. Zardari’s interaction with the US media was good. The credit for all this must go to President Zardari and no one else.

There are other positive signals. The US intends to increase its troop strength in Afghanistan to accelerate stability there. The ‘Joint Task Force Patrols’ on both sides of the border if considered together with the idea of a border commission can lead to a de facto ‘Neutral Zone’ along the border with a mechanism for solving tactical problems immediately under the umbrella of the existing Tripartite Commission. Pakistan’s determined and sustained operations in Swat and Bajaur should have dispelled doubts about intentions, capabilities and capacity---the key to Swat stability is in the adjoining Bajaur area that borders Afghanistan. The US administration has agreed to provide additional Cobra helicopters because sustained operations take their toll. Hopefully capacity building will continue and expand.

The ‘drone downing’ incident and the exchange of fire reports have been handled well by both sides as were the earlier incidents. Admiral Mullens’ statement has been positive. The fact that there is increasing recognition that ‘collateral damage’ eventually leads to loss of more US lives and that unilateral trans border actions help no one except the terrorists augers well for future US policy especially because of the ‘’winter surge’development operations being considered by the US in Eastern Afghanistan.

By now the militant strategy against Pakistan is clear----defend sanctuaries by carrying the destruction to Pakistan’s heartland, gain influence and terrorize, strike at airports, ports, trains and high impact targets to isolate and paralyze Pakistan. Kidnap foreign nationals to accelerate isolation and economic decline. They have had some success but by now Pakistan’s response should also be clear. Revulsion for attacks on civilians especially women children and low paid workers, hatred for those who spread mayhem and terror, hatred for those who kidnap those working for Pakistan’s future, resolve to battle the monster within and steps to bring political stability and economic reform. Pakistan’s response needs international and domestic support from all quarters including its influential media. The recent police action in Karachi against extremists and the steps being taken to harness pro Pakistan tribals into “lashkars’ are moves in the right direction. The promise of more responsive administration and justice is important.

There is a realization that overt policy is one thing but strong cooperation at operational levels is critically important. This is true in the case of bilateral relations with Afghanistan and India and with the US. This is also true for the reform of institutions that must now support new policy directions.

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