Forum Pakistan

By ZAID HAMID
Wednesday, 12 November 2008.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan—"I don't care who does the electing, so long as I get to do the nominating." –
William Marcy Tweed - (1823-1878). Tweed was head of Tammany Hall, the Democratic Party political machine that played a major role in the politics of 19th century New York.


In Pakistan also, it did not matter who voted in these latest ‘elections’. It was the CIA which did the nominating which brought about PPP government and Zardari as president. Before we do our assessment of the latest ground situation in Pakistan, let’s re-visit what we wrote last week:



We had written:
“The CIA has now declared an aggressive but covert war against Pakistan in a desperate attempt to counter success of Pakistan army and Governor NWFP in countering CIA / RAW backed terrorist groups in the tribal areas of Pakistan. For the first time, there is panic in Langley over success of Pakistani strategy in tribal areas. This seems bizarre but this is the reality of the dirty game being played by American secret service. The CIA’s game is falling apart in tribal areas and they are getting more and more ruthless and sinister. The entire CIA game plan was about to collapse. They had to spring into action and they did with vengeance. Now CIA is only targeting those militants who have signed peace deals with Pakistan and have joined hands with Pakistan army to isolate and hunt the terrorist TTP gangs. This is most sinister, ruthless and criminal betrayals of entire Pakistani State, society and nation by the CIA and U.S.. It is not just CIA’s secret war. The entire U.S. foreign policy is behind this dirty and sick plan”



On ground, the real and wider U.S. game against Pakistan, for which these elections were engineered and a regime change was brought about can be best summarized in following bullets:



There are the eight axes of operations U.S. / CIA wanted Islamabad to perform on:



* The corrupt and weak government leading to zero governance and pro-U.S. decision making. Full support to U.S. on war on terror, economy.



* The economic game plan to bring Pakistan under IMF regime. Power cuts, food shortages, miserable life to create a justification.



* Improved relations with India despite Kashmir violence and water blockade. This is required to reduce the need for large standing army for Pakistan.



* Recognition of Israel. Already plans are underway.



* Support to sub-nationalists leading to dismemberment. Map of greater Pashtunistan already distributed by ANP, the ruling party in NWFP.



* Use of pliant and supportive media to create chaos and confusion.



* The CIA’s direct war against Pakistan in tribal areas to create terrorism.



* Pakistan’s nuke weapons and missile program to be neutralized and taken out.



All of the above strategy points are being addressed simultaneously. There is no doubt that Obama is not going to change the Bush policies towards Pakistan but is only going to accelerate the unfinished agenda. Kashmir remains a major stumbling block to justify reduction of Pakistan army, hence even before he won, Obama was loud and clear on his future moves. U.S. strategy is obvious – Pakistan should only have a glorified police force to fight the Taliban militants and does not need a large standing army. He actually said it.



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U.S. should help resolve Kashmir issue: Obama: ‘Militants, not India, biggest threat to Pakistan’
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WASHINGTON, Nov 2: The United States should try to resolve the Kashmir dispute, says U.S. presidential front-runner Barack Obama while backing American efforts to promote a better understanding between India and Pakistan. “We should probably try to facilitate a better understanding between Pakistan and India and try to resolve the Kashmir crisis so that they can stay focused not on India, but on the situation... http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?fil ... e=20081103



The next most immediate move is to sign a deal with the IMF and offer the most strategic national economic assets for sale. This is being done on fast track and in vulgar haste. The pressure is intense on the PPP government from the international monetary institutions to sign the deals but they are scared of the internal backlash. There is a reason why former CJ iftikhar is not being re-instated. He had shot down the steel mills privatization and had snubbed the government of Shaukat Aziz and Musharraf. Now Zardari is scared of the same. The former CJ has openly come out and expressed his frustrations over this. IMF and Privatization are the topmost agenda and Zardari is in a hurry! Opposition is resisting.



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Debate sought on IMF conditions
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ISLAMABAD, Nov 2: The Punjab chief of Pakistan Muslim League-Q, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, has demanded that conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout package should be debated in parliament. Addressing a news conference after a meeting with party workers from Attock and Chakwal on Sunday, the former chief minister said the government had not provided any relief to people suffering from inflation, food shortage and unemployment....
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?fil ... e=20081103


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Privatisation can yield $2-3bn
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ISLAMABAD, Nov 4: The government expects to raise $2 billion to $3 billion from the sale of state-owned entities like the National Power Construction Company, Jamshoro Power Company, Faisalabad Electric Supply Company, Heavy Electrical Complex, and the Qadirpur gas field. Unveiling the privatisation plan on Tuesday, Privatisation Minister Naveed Qamar termed it the ‘cornerstone’ of the economic agenda to generate funds for bridging the balance of payment gap......
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?fil ... e=20081105

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Plan for sale of Qadirpur gas field approved: Heavy Electrical Complex and SME Bank also to be privatised
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ISLAMABAD, Nov 7: Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani approved on Friday a plan to privatise Qadirpur gas field, Small and Medium Enterprises Bank and Heavy Electrical Complex. The decision comes two days ahead of a scheduled meeting of the executive board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that will decide about a loan to Pakistan....

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?fil ... e=20081108


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Iftikhar hits out at Musharraf and Aziz
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ISLAMABAD, Nov 3: In what appeared to be a departure from his earlier stand, deposed chief justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry dwelt on political issues for the first time on Monday and accused former president Pervez Musharraf and prime minister Shaukat Aziz of indulging in maneuverings for imposing the Nov 3, 2007, emergency rule which he described as a martial law meant only to curb the judiciary and the media. “The Supreme Court’s throwing away of privatization of the Pakistan Steel Mills by an 11-member bench became the basis behind the estranged relationship with the rulers that led to my suspension,

http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?fil ... e=20081104

Simultaneously, the sub-nationalist ANP, which is the ruling party in NWFP and coalition partner of PPP have openly come out to demand greater Pashtunistan or dismemberment of Pakistan on ethnic lines. The huge 40 feet hoardings [click on text to watch the picture on main roads in NWFP are clear indications that a massive sinister game is in operation. The hoarding shows “greater Afghanistan” taking areas of FATA and NWFP as part of it and saying that Pashtuns are “one”. This is on the similar lines of the map which the U.S. armed forces journal presented few years back suggesting breakup of Pakistan on ethnic lines.

But in the tribal areas, the U.S. game was well exposed and discussed within Pakistani security establishment after Brasstacks exposed the game in previous reports. The visiting U.S. officials were seriously confronted even by an embarrassed Prime Minister over the drone attacks on loyalist tribals while the enemies of the State like TTP of Baitullah Mehsud were not being attacked by the CIA drones. The U.S. attacks have seriously exposed the PPP government and now they are panicking as internal public and national mood is growing against the government. All these attacks are being done under tacit approval from the PPP government and the parliament was forbidden to discuss any policy matters or to pass any law barring cooperation with the Americans. But still, PPP wants U.S. to go slow or don’t get caught in the act.

PPP government is in serious trouble now. They are desperate to seek the support of Nawaz Sharif on IMF and on privatization. PPP also wants opposition support in implementing above mentioned U.S. agenda. Now he cannot do it alone. Zardari has already used and dumped Nawaz when he got the support of PML(N) against Musharraf and became President himself. Zardari has also refused to re-instate the former CJ. But now Zardari is in trouble and he has launched another charm offensive on Nawaz.

The PPP government is under severe pressure to respond to the U.S. attacks. Parliament did not take any decision. Army has been forced to hold its fire. But the tribals are now getting impatient and some response is demanded from the PPP government. Parliament had passed a weak resolution but the government is too weak and corrupt even to implement this basic condemnation.



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Tribesmen for tit-for-tat response: U.S. missile attacks
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MIRAMSHAH, Nov 3: Frustrated by the frequent guided missile attacks, the tribal elders here on Monday asked the government to give a tit-for-tat response to stop U.S. spy planes’ intrusions into Pakistani territory. Speaking at a joint press conference in Miramshah, elders representing major clans of North Waziristan Agency demanded of the government to implement parliament’s unanimously passed resolution in letter and sprit and halt incursion of the Nato planes.....
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?fil ... e=20081104

But the army and the courageous Governor of NWFP have decided to chalk out their own strategy against the militants despite the impotence of the government and the attacks of the CIA across the border onto pro-Pakistan tribals. The anti-Pakistan militants are now being ruthlessly hunted and targeted.

The future of this government is bleak. But on its way out it will perhaps do a considerable amount of damage to national economy, security and integration. They stand on weakest of turfs with no support within the people or the military. It is a group of corrupt incompetent cronies’ hell bent on serving U.S. objectives.

Nawaz Sharif is silent these days. He is only watching the game from the sidelines. He has not offered a helping had yet but Zardari is trying to lure him again. NS is close to Saudis and can bring help if he wants. But it is also in his interest to let this government make mistakes and draw the wrath of the people in the process. If there are new elections and this government falls, NS has a good chance of making it back with in force. But there is also a downside of this “watch and wait” strategy of PML (n). In desperate bid to survive and to deliver the U.S. given agenda, the PPP government would sign on the dotted lines of the IMF and would make Pakistan a hostage to the situation.

A new election seems the safest way out. This government has failed and continues to fail. With a cabinet induction of almost 61 ministers, it is a hugely inefficient and corrupt setup, totally incapable of solving any issues except sellouts and rip-offs. Pakistan urgently needs a solid debate in the parliament on anti-terror policy. Pakistan need to talk to Afghan Taliban to bring them on board to contain the bad Taliban in TTP. Pakistan needs to get its share of water from India on war footings and Pakistan must jealously guard its nuke and missile program. IMF is a death warrant for Pakistan on the terms they are offering. Zardari is in a hurry to sign it but is not confident enough of his survival after that. It is a touch and go for this PPP government as well. Meanwhile, the army continues to take the matters into its own hands in the tribal areas and watching the game unfolding in Islamabad very closely.